Canada Hammers US Tourism Hard with New Decline as Rebound Trips and Cross-Border Travel Plunge by Over Thirty Percent in Twelve Straight Months: Everything You Need to Know

By: Rana Pratap

While Canadian travel to the United States is drastically declining, the US tourism industry is experiencing a severe downturn. Cross-border travel fell precipitously in December 2025, with Canadian-resident return trips from the U.S. falling by more than thirty percent, continuing a twelve-month trend of steady decline. Many in the tourism industry are concerned about this downward spiral, citing a combination of economic factors, political unrest, and the disruptive effects of the U.S. government shutdown as major contributors. The U.S. tourism industry, which had previously benefited from high visitor numbers from its northern neighbor, has suffered a serious setback with the drop in Canadian travel to the country. Experts speculate that the continued political unpredictability and logistical difficulties are deterring Canadian travelers, further hurting the U.S. tourism industry as rebound trips become less common.

A Sharp Drop in Cross-Border Travel

December 2025 saw just 1.3 million Canadian-resident return trips from the U.S., representing a steep decline of 30.7% from December 2024. This slump marks the latest chapter in a year-long decline that has now stretched across 12 months. The highest number of returning Canadian-resident arrivals occurred on Sunday, December 28, with 73,800 trips, a 28.5% increase over the average for other Sundays in the month. However, this increase was more of an outlier, with overall numbers continuing their downward trajectory.

Despite being one of the busiest months for cross-border travel, U.S. tourism from Canada has seen consistent decreases, with travel data revealing an ongoing struggle to recover. The downward trend reflects a broader crisis in U.S. tourism, particularly affecting travel from neighbouring Canada.

The Political Storm Impacting U.S. Tourism

The decline in Canadian travel to the U.S. can largely be traced to escalating political tensions. Since his re-election in January 2025, the administration has pursued a series of controversial policies that have strained relations with Canada, leading to a noticeable dip in Canadian tourism.

Trump’s administration imposed tariffs on long-time allies, including Canada, and has even threatened to annex Canada. These aggressive policies have created a climate of uncertainty for Canadian travellers, with many opting to stay away from the U.S. out of concern for economic and political stability. Along with tariffs, Trump’s administration has implemented mass deportations and detained foreign tourists at the border, further deterring Canadians from visiting the U.S.

On top of that, the U.S. is also contemplating a new programme that scrutinizes foreign tourists’ social media profiles before they can enter the country. This move is widely perceived as invasive and has added to the hesitancy surrounding travel to the U.S., with many Canadians questioning whether it’s worth the risk to visit.

Travel Boycotts and Lost Spending

The growing frustration with U.S. policies has sparked calls for a boycott of U.S. tourism. According to the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), the U.S. is set to lose $12.5 billion in international tourism spending in 2025. Of the 184 nations studied by the WTTC and Oxford Economics, the U.S. was the only country predicted to see a decline in international visitor spending.

This loss is significant for the U.S. economy, especially given the country’s dependence on international tourism. Canadian visitors, traditionally one of the largest international tourist groups, have been hesitant to cross the border, with the ongoing political tensions acting as a major deterrent.

The Fallout from the U.S. Government Shutdown

In addition to political factors, the U.S. government shutdown in late 2025 has amplified the challenges facing the travel sector. The shutdown, which lasted 43 days, severely disrupted air travel, tourism security and international tourism programmes, causing massive delays and cancellations.

During this period, the U.S. lost $6.1 billion in tourism revenue as per US Travel Association. The government shutdown resulted in $2.7 billion in direct losses from travel-related spending, along with an additional $3.4 billion lost due to delayed flights, missed business trips, and reduced bookings. On top of this, the flight schedule reduction during the shutdown led to a 6% drop in U.S. air traffic, causing significant disruptions in major hubs like New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles.

For Canadian tourists who were already hesitant to travel due to political tensions, these delays only added to the uncertainty and frustration, reinforcing their decision to stay away.

U.S. Tourism Crisis: Economic Consequences

The long-term decline in U.S. tourism is causing substantial economic damage, not just to the tourism industry, but to the broader economy as well. According to the U.S. Travel Association, the travel sector is a major contributor to the national economy, and the loss of $12.5 billion in international spending could have lasting effects on jobs, business revenue, and the tourism infrastructure.

For cities like New York, Los Angeles, and Miami, which heavily rely on tourism, the loss of Canadian visitors is particularly concerning. These destinations are not only seeing fewer Canadian visitors but also facing a decline in overall travel spending, affecting everything from hotel bookings to tourist attractions and local businesses.

The Road Ahead: Can U.S. Tourism Recover?

To reverse this downturn in Canadian cross-border travel, the U.S. will need to address several pressing issues. Political relations with Canada must be improved, and the hostile rhetoric from Washington needs to be dialed back. Moreover, visa policies, immigration laws, and social media scrutiny will need to be reevaluated in order to rebuild trust with foreign visitors.

For Canadians, the future of travel to the U.S. is uncertain. While some may continue to visit, many will likely seek alternative destinations, either within Canada or other international locations that offer a more welcoming and stable environment. In the short term, U.S. tourism will need to adapt to the changing landscape if it hopes to regain its once-thriving reputation as a top destination for Canadian travellers.

The U.S. tourism industry is facing a major setback as Canada hammers U.S. tourism hard. Cross-border travel has plunged by over thirty percent for twelve straight months, driven by political tensions, economic factors, and disruptions like the U.S. government shutdown.

Conclusion: The Hard Truth for U.S. Tourism

The decline in Canadian tourism to the U.S. reflects the broader challenges facing the U.S. travel industry in 2025. Political tensions, trade conflicts, and the fallout from the U.S. government shutdown have combined to create a hostile environment for foreign tourists, particularly Canadians. With continued declines in tourism spending, the U.S. faces an uphill battle in restoring its position as a global tourism leader. The next steps for U.S. tourism will require substantial policy changes, greater diplomatic engagement, and a commitment to rebuilding the international trust that has been eroded over the past year.